August 12th 2020

Radical Uncertainty Zoom Interactive Event with John Kay

On 12 August 2020, PARC members gathered for Radical Uncertainty, a Zoom Interactive Event led by economist John Kay. John latest book, co-authored with Mervyn King and also titled Radical Uncertainty explains that we deal with uncertainties by attaching prior probabilities to uncertain events. Contemporary approaches to things we simply do not and cannot know rely on a false understanding of our power to make predictions. Probability theory while useful, he argues, has given us a false sense of accuracy and led us to believe that uncertainty can be measured and risk reduced accordingly by the use of mathematical models. This, he says, is disguising uncertainty rather than illuminating it.

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