Geopolitical Outlook – What Should We Expect, How Will It Affect Us?
28 January 2020
08.00 – 10.00
We enter 2020 after a year of increasing global political uncertainty and economic turbulence – with rising tensions over world trade. The second half of the 2010s saw political upheaval affecting the hitherto relatively stable democracies in the West.
PARC’s paper Geopolitical Risk: A Changing Insecurity in 2018 concluded that the next decade is likely to see more of the same. The shifting power dynamics between China and the US, political and sectarian differences in the Middle East, Russia’s willingness to use military intervention and the potential escalation of conﬂicts in a number of strategic pinch points all threaten potential disruption to world trade and energy supplies.
Since then, we have seen a continuing rise in populist movements, fragmentation and political realignments in a number of countries. Shock election results have brought unlikely and unpredictable candidates to power. Western politics is seeing greater segmentation and polarisation of views – a trend that is echoed in, and reinforced by the news media. Some fear for the future of liberal democracy.